Format: ORAL

Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis1 Anna Kontopanou1 Ioannis P. Kokkoris1 Arne Strid2 Panayotis Dimopoulos1 Maria Panitsa1

1 Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece 2 Bakkevej 6, DK-5853 Ørbæk, Denmark

The Aegean archipelago, the worlds second largest, lies at the crossroads of Europe, Africa, and Asia. This unique ecological laboratory comprises approximately 8,000 islands and islets, hosting around 600 endemic species. Among these, certain chasmophytes are confined to calcareous, inaccessible cliffs, a consequence of historical paleogeographical events and ongoing biogeographical processes. These chasmophytes exhibit limited competitive and dispersal capacities, primarily due to the large size of their diaspores and highly specialized niches. Having endured harsh environmental conditions for millennia, these species now confront an unprecedented threat level due to the synergistic impacts of climate change and land-use modifications. This study investigates the potential effects of future climate and land-use changes on the distribution patterns of these endemic cliff-dwelling species. Utilizing a species distribution modeling framework, we assess these impacts across three time periods and propose conservation strategies to mitigate their potential decline