Format: ORAL

Merav Lebel Vine, Jonathan Belmaker, Yuval Sapir

Tel Aviv University, Israel

One of the most severe threats to global biodiversity is land-use changes. Reintroduction is a major conservation tool, but its success relies on accurate estimation of the species niche. While niche modeling has been used to predict the distribution of plants, it has been rarely used as a tool for predicting reintroduction success. We aim to examine the possible use of niche modeling for improving endangered species reintroduction success and thus contributing to plant conservation efforts. The East Mediterranean basin is a hotspot of plant diversity, but due to dense population and massive urbanization, only a small fraction of the natural areas remain, challenging the finding of appropriate sites for reintroduction. Moreover, habitat suitability is rapidly changing with global climate change. We used species distribution models (SDM) to estimate the potential niche for reintroduction of endangered species based on known sites of occurrence. Reintroduction field experiments in natural reserves and agricultural land are currently performed for five endangered endemic plants- Rumex aeroplaniformis, Verbascum berytheum, Salvia eigii, Onosma gigantea, and Vicia esdraeloninsis- representing two endangered habitats: Loamy soils in valleys and coastal sandy soils. For those species, we also predicted future potential distribution using future climate projections. For all species, the model predicts a general decline in the potential distribution, particularly in the suitability of current population sites.