Format: ORAL

Arnau Bosch-Guiu1, Cindy Q. Tang 2, Neus Nualart 1, Tetsuya Matsui 3,4, Haruka Ohashi 3, Takuto Shitara 5, Ileana Herrera 6,7, Jordi Lpez-Pujol 1,6

1 Botanical Institute of Barcelona (IBB), CSIC-CMCNB, Barcelona, Spain, arnau.bosch@csic.es 2 Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, College of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Dongwaihuan South Road, University Town, Chenggong New District, Kunming, Yunnan, 650504, China 3 Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8687, Japan 4 Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tennodai 1-1-1, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8572, Japan 5 Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8 Saiwai-cho, Fuchu-shi, Tokyo, 183-8509, Japan 6 Escuela de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador 7 Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad (INABIO), Quito 170505, Ecuador

Climatic changes play an essential role in shaping biodiversity. As global climate change accelerates, comprehending its potential impacts on ecosystems and species has become increasingly vital; indeed, climate change is considered a key driver for species extinction. Therefore, climatic refugia will play a crucial role for the conservation of extant biodiversity, and conservation efforts should be directed towards protecting these areas. Protected areas (PAs) are currently regarded as fundamental to ensure biodiversity conservation; thus, evaluating how future climatic change is affecting PAs would be helpful in prioritizing or redesigning the existing ones. Moreover, identifying areas with high climatic stability (i.e. climatic refugia) could also guide the designing of new PAs. This study employs the Climate Stability Index (CSI), developed by Herrando-Moraira et al. [1], to assess the vulnerability of the current network of world’s terrestrial PAs to climate change. The CSI originally used an uncorrelated set of the 19 WorldClim bioclimatic variables from present to year 2100 at 2.5 arc-min (ca. 5 km) grid resolution, and here is updated with the latest fourteen general circulation models of climate change at higher resolution (ca. 1 km) of four periods available from WorldClim. This research evaluates the projected climate changes considering the current network of PAs as a whole, but also considering different levels of protection of PAs (e.g. the IUCN six management categories), different biogeographic regions, or different levels of species richness and endemism. The findings will contribute valuable insights to conservation strategies, aiding policymakers and land managers in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of ongoing climate change in the world’s terrestrial PAs, ensuring informed decision-making in the face of environmental challenges. Herrando-Moraira, S., et al. (2022). Climate Stability Index maps, a global high resolution cartography of climate stability from Pliocene to 2100. Scientific Data 9, 48.