Format: ORAL

Irene Mendoza

Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Sevilla, Spain

Seed dispersal implies the movement of a seed at a certain distance from the maternal plant, which favours propagation towards new environments. Many Spermatophyta rely on animals for seed dispersal, especially those with fleshy fruits which offer a nutritious award for the disperser. The unprecedented environmental change produced by human activities (including climate and land-use changes) is not only reducing biodiversity in terms of the number of species, but it is also changing the probabilities of interactions among plants and their dispersers. Seed dispersal by avian species necessarily implies that the phenology of birds and fruit production matches in time. Whereas we have evidence that species are already changing their geographic distribution ranges and their life cycles timing (e.g., bird migration, fruiting time) as a consequence of climate change, we still have a knowledge gap in understanding whether these changes will result in mismatches among interacting species. Network analytical advances and new technologies applied to biodiversity monitoring have paved the road to undertake this challenging objective. In this presentation, I will focus on these specific questions 1) What phenological changes are currently taking place in Southern Spain as a consequence of global change? 2) Are these phenological shifts resulting in a mismatch between the phenology of birds and fleshy-fruited plants? 3) How can we forecast phenological mismatches? For answering these questions, I will use methods from classical field monitoring and new technologies such as digital images from phenocams or unmanned aerial vehicles that have barely been applied to research on ecological interactions, combined with cutting-edge analytical tools including network analyses and forecasting modeling. These methods and conceptual advances can be easily extended to other terrestrial plants and will help understanding the ultimate consequences for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation of seed dispersal mismatches induced by global change.