Format: ORAL

Joshua Borrs1, Ivn Corts-Fernndez2, Miquel Cap3

1 Research Group on Plant Biology under Mediterranean Conditions, Department of Biology, University of Balearic Islands, Palma, Spain. 2 Interdisciplinary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Palma de Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Spain 3 Plant & Animal Ecology Lab. Centro para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad y el Desarrollo Sostenible, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

The study of cliff ecology has long revealed the rich biodiversity of these habitats and their susceptibility to climate change. Similarly, island ecosystems are recognized for their unique biodiversity and high rates of endemism, but are also significantly impacted by human activities. This research focuses on the intersection of these two areas: the unique and highly vulnerable insular cliff communities. We conducted an in-depth examination of the spatial distribution of cliff vegetation in the Balearic Islands, identifying key environmental and climatic factors that shape these habitats. Using the WorldClim database, we projected future changes in spatial distribution. Our findings highlight the mountains and coasts as the most suitable habitats, particularly Mallorcas Serra de Tramuntana mountain range. Looking ahead, our models predict that the spatial distribution of cliff vegetation will remain stable in the mountain ranges where habitat suitability is high, but will decrease or disappear in other less favourable areas between 2021 and 2040. By 2081-2100, the only areas predicted to be well-suited for cliff vegetation are the high-elevation mountains north of Mallorca. These findings underscore the vulnerability of these habitats to climate change, particularly their susceptibility to aridity and the strict habitat suitability requirements, such as steep slopes. As such, future research should focus on analysing individual species to assess if any cliff specialist species are at risk of extinction due to climate change. This research contributes to our understanding of the spatial distribution and vulnerability of insular cliff vegetation, providing valuable insights for conservation efforts.